Nooddienste (medies, elektrisiteit, water) sal in
die tydperk van die lockdown steeds verskaf word en winkels waar kos
verkoop word sal steeds voortgaan met dienslewering.
is dus nie totaal uitgelewer nie
en het nie nodig om
paniekerig te word nie.
In die tyd
moet mense sover as
moontlik tuis bly
ten einde kontak
met ander mense
moontlik te beperk.
Dit is die enigste manier waarop jy jouself veilig kan
Op die oomblik is daar volgens die WHO
nog geen behandeling of medikasie
wat kan help nie.
Respirators kan in 'n mate help om
simptome te verlig maar hospitale ervaar 'n groot tekort
Daar is tans by baie mense groot verwarring oor hoe mens die corona situasie moet hanteer en
oor wat mag en wat mag nie, soos uit die boodskap van hierdie dame blyk.
Die virus affekteer ons almal op
die een of ander manier.
"Social Distancing" is baie belangrik omdat die virus
deur die lug wat mense uitasem / hoes / nies versprei
Dit is selfs binne 'n familie nodig om afstand te
handhaaf ten einde moontlike verspreiding van die virus
Veral ouer mense moet baie versigtig wees omdat
hulle weerstand teen die virus laag is.
Spoegdeeltjies kan maklik 'n paar meter ver trek as
iemand hoes. Dit is daarom belangrik om 'n masker te
dra, of in jou hand /sakdoek / mou te hoes ten einde te
keer dat ander geaffekteer kan word.
Dit is nie so moeilik om 'n masker te maak nie.
Dra dit aanhoudend om jouself te beskerm, maar ook om
moontlike verspreiding van die virus te keer.
Verder kan persoonlike higiene ook help. Was jou hande
gereeld en maak seker dat jy nie onnodig aan jou gesig
vat nie. Die virus verkry toegang tot jou liggaam deur
jou mond, neus en oë.
Baie mense ervaar hierdie tyd
as 'n tyd van onsekerheid en vrees.
Die Bybel is vol uitnodigings om op God te vertrou,
asook talle beloftes dat God sy geliefdes vashou.
Daarom is my keuse:
Die geskiedenis herhaal homself.
In 1919 was daar 'n groot griep pandemie, en nou in 2019 (presies 100 jaar
later) breek daar weer 'n pandemie uit.
Bybelmedia stel 'n paar produkte beskikbaar om mense in die
tyd van afsondering sinvol besig te hou.
Daar is aktiwiteite vir die kleinspan en Bybelstudies vir die res van die
Kliek op die boekomslae hieronder om die boeke individueel as pdf dokumente
af te laai.
Kinderpret: Speelleer-aktiwiteitsboek oor die Ou
speelleer-aktiwiteitsboek bevat 50 selfdoen-aktiwiteite oor
belangrike tekste in die Ou Testament van die Bybel. Deur hierdie
aktiwiteite ontdek kinders op ŉ prettige manier die 50 belangrikste
verhale in die Ou Testament. Die aktiwiteite sluit in
ontdek-die-verskille, inkleurprente, vind-die-paadjie en
kleur-volgens-die-nommers-in. Speel-speel leer ken kleuters en
kinders baie van die verhale wat deel van ons geloof vorm.
Daniël is egter nie net vol onvergeetlike heldedade nie. Dit is
geskryf om gelowiges aan te spoor om in moeilike tye op God te bly
hoop. Daarom vleg daar een element soos ’n goue draad deur al
hierdie verhale: Daniël en sy drie vriende se onwrikbare vertroue op
vir Vandag: Die Man in die middel
Elke boek in hierdie reeks is saamgestel
uit die gewilde jaardagboek Boodskap vir vandag wat in e-boekformaat
verskyn het. Elke titel in hierdie reeks bevat 30 dagstukke oor ŉ
spesifieke tema. Met elke dagstuk delf die skrywer diep in die Bybel
en daag sy lesers uit met interessante stories en Bybelwaarhede wat
ŉ groot invloed op hulle geloofslewe en spiritualiteit kan hê.
Genooi om te volg
Ervaar die lewe
van die aardse Jesus.
Wat is die Corona Virus?
Regskliek op die prent hierbo en selekteer "Save as"
om dit in volgrootte af
Regskliek op die prent hierbo en selekteer "Save as"
om dit in volgrootte af
Regskliek op die prent hierbo en selekteer "Save as"
Clem Sunter is a scenario planner and strategist whose influential ideas in
the 1980s played into apartheid South Africa opting for the High Road of
political settlement, rather than the Low Road of confrontation and civil
a prolific author, read politics, philosophy and economics at
Oxford University before enjoying a successful corporate career at Anglo
American. The “Foxy
Futurist“, so called because of his books that draw on the mind
of a fox to illuminate lessons for strategy, applies his mind to what’s next
after the Covid-19
pandemic that has derailed economies globally. He doesn’t buy the
idea that Covid-19
data is misleading governments into implementing strict lockdown
measures. But he does think that the world is in the grip of a crisis that
looks far worse in practical terms than what it must have looked like in
Depression a century ago. Sunter is certain that life really will
never be like it was before the coronavirus broke
loose in Wuhan, China and jumped across borders at an exponential
rate. – Jackie Cameron
The latest coronavirus scenarios: walking the tightrope
By Clem Sunter*
At the beginning of March this year, I
wrote an article painting three coronavirus scenarios for the
world at large over the foreseeable future: “Much Ado About Nothing”, “The
Camel’s Straw” and “Spain Again”.
At the time, the number of global infections caused by the virus was 100 000
and deaths 3 000. Today the respective figures are 2 400 000 and 165 000.
So, looking towards the remainder of this year and into the next one, which
scenario is likely to play out in reality? In answering this question, I
will add one further scenario which I call “Tightrope”. As you will see, it
is a challenging alternative but these are unprecedented times.
Much ado about nothing
All the medical flags which have gone up over the last month indicate that
this scenario can almost certainly be discarded as a way of interpreting the
past and the future of the pandemic.
The rise in the number of deaths by a factor of 55 in such a short period,
and the fact that the public health systems of some of the richest nations
on Earth have been completely overwhelmed, indicate the sheer scale and
suddenness of the current disease.
To suggest that it is just another form of seasonal flu or that, left to
itself, it will disappear like the outbreak of SARS and MERS before doing
too much damage to humanity seems bizarre. Yet, there are still people who
believe in this narrative and say that governments should never have strayed
from a policy of business as usual in the economy. Some of the recent
demonstrations against stay-at-home orders in America reveal the depth of
By contrast, I think the coronavirus is changing the game as we speak and
will have a long-term impact on many aspects of our existence. It may force
us to reconsider our profligate lifestyle and make us more aware of the
inequities across society.
In particular, it will drive those in power to acknowledge that doctors,
nurses and other health professionals deserve as much protection as soldiers
being sent into battle.
The fact is that an unseen virus can stir up as much mayhem as a group of
terrorists armed with a nuclear weapon. Having an adequate defense system to
protect the nation against any external threat will acquire a wider meaning
than just the possession of military prowess.
In other words, we will have plenty to do about improving public health
structures in the aftermath of this pandemic. Hopefully, we will be better
prepared for the next lethal virus if it appears anytime soon.
The camel’s straw
We move on to The Camel’s Straw scenario. In it the coronavirus does not
have to kill millions of people to be the straw that breaks the camel’s
The global economy was already
vulnerable before the pandemic began, with slower economic growth in China
and the ongoing trade spat between the two biggest economies in the world, America
and China. All that was required, therefore, was a small
disruption to make the global economy collapse like it did in the Great
Depression of the 1930s.
In terms of disruption, reality so far has been far more shocking. Witness
the scenes of major cities with deserted streets; small businesses,
restaurants and shops reliant on daily cash flows being completely closed
down; operations of large businesses put on care and maintenance; no sports
events or other mass gatherings; empty churches, schools and universities;
multiple deaths in old age homes hit by the virus; and no international
travel and tourism.
If I had posed this scenario in November last year, nobody would have
believed it because it was unimaginable.
Obviously, there have been winners like all those companies involved in
social media communication, virtual meetings and webinars. Many
entrepreneurial minds have come up with ways to lift the spirits of those
confined in homes with exercise routines and other entertainment options.
The food, medical, banking and other essential industries are operating as
best they can. However, the vast majority of companies have seen their
markets vanish overnight with workers being put on temporary leave or
Unemployment figures are going through the roof at the same time as the
realisation is hitting home that lots of people live hand to mouth with
little or no savings to see them through. Charitable institutions offering
free meals will attest to the soaring demand for their services.
The global stock markets have gyrated wildly in the way I anticipated in my
last article. March was on the whole a bad
month for the markets; but the last fortnight saw a significant
rise in share prices as investors took comfort in the record relief packages
put forward by governments and central banks.
Other positive flags included the easing of the lockdown in China and the
flattening of the curve of new infections in Europe, the UK and the US. The
hope is that the worst of the pandemic will be over in the next month and
the economy will soon be on its feet again and firing on all cylinders by
the end of the year.
However, there are too many uncertainties around for any sane observer to
reject The Camel’s Straw scenario at this stage. What will happen may well
be different to what the market wants to happen. One cannot look at the
future through a bubble of emotion.
For example, the virus may return with a vengeance in the event of a
premature end to social
distancing. Equally, nobody knows how many businesses may have
been permanently destroyed in the last few months.
Above all, governments may be less solvent because of a decline in tax
receipts at the very moment that they are taking on a huge amount of extra
debt to finance their bailouts. A spectacular default somewhere has become a
Liquidity may also become a concern to companies with too much gearing on
their balance sheets. Similarly, individual consumers could experience
difficulty in paying off credit card balances because they no longer have
the salaries or wages to do so.
The third scenario of a repeat of the Spanish
flu of the last century, which killed 3 to 5% of the world’s
population, will remain in play until a vaccine
is found. As already indicated, the coronavirus is unlikely just
to melt away even with prolonged restrictions on human movement.
Meanwhile, some aspects of the virus remain shrouded in mystery such as the
number of asymptomatic cases; whether there are long-term side effects for
those who have recovered from the infection; and whether they will be immune
from being infected again. Estimates of the actual infection rate and death
rate still vary a lot through lack of comprehensive data.
With the world’s greatest experts focused on discovering a vaccine and
proving it in a series of trials, the time to get it on the market is
thought to be a year to eighteen months. Until then, the nightmare scenario
of a runaway pandemic should serve as a warning to all those leaders and
policy makers who want to dismantle the current measures of containment too
My closing advice at the end of my previous article was that humankind must
become more cooperative to ensure that the virus did not have the last word.
We needed to create the feeling of a shared destiny on this planet.
Alas, despite some wonderful examples of international assistance with
critical items of medical equipment being sent to places where they are most
needed, we still live in a world of enclaves, rising nationalism and leaders
pursuing their own agenda.
If anything, the virus has fueled an even greater desire by countries to
become more inward-looking and self-sufficient. Yet, the only way out of the
mess is a shared strategy to rid the world of an enemy that knows no
borders. Every nation has to learn from each other.
Hence, I am introducing the Tightrope scenario which is all about a delicate
balancing act between preserving lives and livelihoods. The most important
decision for any country to make is when and how to lift the restrictions in
place by balancing the best medical models on the potential evolution of the
pandemic against the need to revive the economy.
This is not easy to do. Implementation has to be a step-by-step process; and
there will be wobbles along the way.
Furthermore, given that the spread of the virus has been uneven, different
parts of a country may need different approaches and time lines. One shoe
does not fit all and any sign of resurgent clusters must be nipped in the
bud with swift testing and fresh quarantine measures if necessary. The
elderly may need special protection too.
As life begins to attain a new normal – it will never return to the old one
– it will be up to businesses, families and individuals to walk the same
tightrope in their daily activities. Judgements on what constitutes sensible
social distancing measures will be at the heart of everything we do until an
effective vaccine is discovered and universally distributed.
There is a growing consensus among governments around the world that the
acrobatic journey described in the fourth scenario should begin as soon as
is reasonably possible. China, Austria and Denmark have already ventured
forth on the rope. New Zealand will start next week and others will follow
later in the year.
Will we thus avoid the pitfalls of slipping into The Camel’s Straw and Spain
Again scenarios on either side of the rope? I sincerely hope so but these
are early days. We have plenty of surprises in store. But of one thing you
can be sure: adaptation is the key to survival.
Clem Sunter is South Africa’s most highly regarded scenario planner and
strategist. He is an icon and model of mental litheness and has been
expertly styled as the Foxy Futurist. He is an executive elite who was
responsible for the scenario planning unit of Anglo American in the 1980s
and operated as its CEO in the 1990s.